Specifically, we focus on calibrating the model to both historical data (rating transition matrices) and market data (CDS quotes) and compare the most popular choices of changes of measure to switch from the historical probability to the risk-neutral one. For this, we show how the classical Girsanov theorem can be applied in the Lie group setting. Moreover, we overcome some of the imperfections of rating matrices published by rating agencies, which are computed with the cohort method, by using a novel Deep Learning approach. This leads to an improvement of the entire scheme and makes the model more robust for applications. We apply our model to compute bilateral credit and debit valuation adjustments of a netting set under a CSA with thresholds depending on ratings of the two parties.

Amazon is the Standard Oil of the 21st century. Its business operations and global reach dwarf those of virtually every other company on the planet -- and exceed the GDP of more than a few countries -- illustrating the vital importance innovation has on the modern economy. In his latest book, The Exponential Age: How Accelerating Technology is Transforming Business, Politics and Society, author Azeem Azhar examines how the ever-increasing pace of technological progress is impacting, influencing -- and often rebuilding -- our social, political and economic mores from the ground up. Excerpted from The Exponential Age: How Accelerating Technology is Transforming Business, Politics and Society by Azeem Azhar. In 2020, Amazon turned twenty-six years old.

Addressing the FICCI's 93rd Annual General Meeting on a fireside chat, industry leaders such as Satya Nadella, Chief Executive Officer, Microsoft, Dr Eric Schmidt, ex-Chairman Alphabet and Chairman of National Security Commission on AI (NSCAI), Nivruti Rai, Country Head, Intel India & Vice President, DPG, Intel Technology India Pvt Ltd. amongst others highlighted the role of technological developments and trends in the artificial intelligence (AI) space and how businesses can utilise AI in the new normal. In conversation with FICCI President Dr Sangita Reddy, Nadella said, "Despite the constraint caused by the pandemic, digital technology is being adopted at scale for core resilience, not only for future transformation but for business continuity, which is the biggest structural change globally. The ability to use digital tools and our built-in infrastructure and capability around the digital track is going to create resilience and transformation." Right from manufacturing, health, education, government, and service sectors, artificial intelligence and digital technology are being accelerated in every sector since COVID-19 outbreak. Amidst all this, data analytics, speech recognition and machine learning have helped industries formulate strategy and adapt to a changing future.

Many people claim current technological progress as happening at a faster and faster pace (exponential even), with no end in sight. The merits and detriments of technology can be argued ad nauseum, but I won't be getting into that in this post (I generally view technology itself as neutral -- it can be used to improve human life or terribly misused to oppress, control, and kill). What I am going to briefly explore here is the question: is current progress in AI exponential? And if so, what implications does that have for estimates on the arrival of human level or superhuman level AI? Before I dive in, it's worth asking (if you didn't study mathematics): why does it matter if something is changing exponentially? Frequently people think the word "exponential" means "really fast", which is sometimes true, but doesn't capture much of the meaning of the concept.

The technological singularity, an age when machine intelligence surpasses human intelligence, is now expected to take place in 2035, 10 years earlier than initially predicted. This was the word from Shayne Manne, co-CEO of SingularityU Africa and co-founder of experiential brand agency Mann Made. Almost 2 000 attendees filled the conference centre at the Kyalami Grand Prix Circuit at the SingularityU South Africa Summit 2019 yesterday. Manne, who delivered the welcome note, discussed the current exponential change and possibilities presented by technology. He explained that singularity,a hypothetical point in the future when technological growth and machine intelligence become uncontrollable and irreversible, once predicted to take place in 2045, is now expected to take place a decade earlier, and is anticipated to result in unfathomable changes to human civilisation.

In my five years of serving as a director and chairman in the boardroom, it's clear to me that embedding an innovative mindset in an organization has never been more important than it is right now. Cutting-edge technology such as artificial intelligence, data analytics, cloud applications and robot process automation are helping drive exponential change in the business world. Organizations that embrace this innovative technology may have a better chance at capitalizing on opportunities. You see innovation in the newcomers to the C-suite. Chief digital officer, chief data officer and chief automation officer are just a few of the emerging titles that are more common in today's marketplace.

The Butterfly Effect is the theory where one small change in the starting condition of an event can have a monumental effect on the outcome of such an event. The term was coined by Edward Lorenz and is derived from the metaphorical example of the details of a tornado being influenced by minor effects of the flapping of wings of a distant butterfly several weeks earlier. Lorenz discovered the effect in 1961 when he was running a numerical computer model to redo a weather prediction. The result was a dramatically different weather scenario. Interestingly, he did this on a computer.

Azeem Azhar is a strategist, product entrepreneur, and analyst living in London. He is the curator of the weekly newsletter Exponential View, from which the following is adapted. This is the first year I am presenting predictions for the coming year. I've received some incredibly helpful comments from readers via Twitter. This has encouraged me to stick my head above the parapet.

Azeem Azhar is a strategist, product entrepreneur, and analyst living in London. He is the curator of the weekly newsletter Exponential View, from which the following is adapted. This is the first year I am presenting predictions for the coming year. I've received some incredibly helpful comments from readers via Twitter. This has encouraged me to stick my head above the parapet.

Notes from Reality is a series of posts on AI and its impact on humans, what can be done today, and what may happen tomorrow. No one has all the answers, but we are trying to arrive at the right questions. In this post, I interviewed Dr. David Bray, Harvard Executive In-Residence and Eisenhower Fellow. This effort began with the post "Let the New Machine Age Begin." The process to write that led to another interview with Dr. Bray and Michael Krigsman, a noted analyst, which is posted here.